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COVID-19

Accuracy and Switching Trackers

Some Background on Accuracy As I’ve watched the tracker at 1point3acres approach one million cumulative cases, a milestone it will reach sometime later today, I’ve become increasingly aware of the disparity in numbers between the trackers.  For example, here are the most recent numbers from several trackers: 1point3acres 994,704 Johns Hopkins 968,203 New York Times […]

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COVID-19

NY, GA, and a projection

There are a couple of interesting developments that relate to the numbers.  I’ll discuss those and then move on to the projection. Antibody Testing First, we have more results from antibody testing, most notably from New York.  New York tested about 3,000 people “at random” and concluded that nearly 14% of state residents had been […]

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COVID-19

An early death and a projection

An important piece of information came out this morning, three previously unreported deaths in Santa Clara County very early on.    The earliest of these was on February 6th, more than three weeks before the previously known first death in the US.  This is important. The earliest known case in California had been January 26th, […]

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COVID-19

Is 3% a lot or a little?

We’re starting to see the first results from antibody testing to try to determine how widespread COVID-19 infections have been. We now have multiple studies reporting infection rates in the 2-3% range. Reactions to these results have been mixed, with some saying that are alarmingly high and others lamenting how low they are. I want […]

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COVID-19

4/20 Projection

In my last projection I noted that deaths that were probably COVID related had begun to be included in some trackers.  This has become more widespread with most trackers including them The primary exception is The Covid Tracking Project which is focused on testing and confirmed cases.  I’ll be following the herd and projecting numbers […]

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COVID-19

Thoughts on a Stanford Study

By now you may have heard of the study out of Stanford which estimates that infection rates are much higher than previously believed and so that the mortality rate is much lower.  This is the type of study that we need to see more of, and I don’t want to denigrate the work done. However, […]

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COVID-19

Which Numbers?

Two days ago, New York started including probable COVID deaths in its reports. We’ve known all along that not all cases and deaths were being reported in the numbers we see.  On the April 7th, Gothamist reported that the increase in deaths in the city was far above normal ( https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths ) and the New […]

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COVID-19

Beginning the Decline

Let’s start with the easy part, projecting current growth out for 10 days. The 5 day running average of new cases per day is just shy of 29,000.  I’ll use that for the case projection today. However, that running average has been declining over the last 4 days.  If it continues to decline, I may […]

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COVID-19

Linear, at least in the short term

I’m starting with two questions today: Are cases still growing exponentially and to what extent is the current growth in cases due to the amount of testing rather than to the actual infection rate?  The first of these questions is relatively straightforward, so I’ll start with it and do a projection. Then I’ll offer some […]

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COVID-19

Exponential or Linear?

I’m going to lead with numbers today and follow with some thoughts on what they might mean. Growth rates for reported cases and deaths continue to decline, though that decline seems to be slowing.  For example, here are the growth and death rates for the past week. This is the percentage increase from the previous […]