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COVID-19

A Puzzle about Deaths

Covid cases have continued to drop over the last week while deaths have largely remained steady.  Cases have been dropping for more than 3 weeks, so it is increasingly puzzling why deaths have remained steady.  The drop in cases has been quite rapid; we have dropped to about 50% of cases over a 3 week […]

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COVID-19

COVID and Drunk Driving

As of the end of January national daily cases stand at about 150,000 down 40% from their peak of 250,000 early in the month.  Still that’s more than twice the summer peak of about 70,000  The decline has been rapid, but seems to be moderating somewhat over the last week.  Daily deaths, on the other […]

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COVID-19

A Decline

I haven’t done a COVID update for a couple of weeks as I’ve been busy and the numbers have been unusually difficult to interpret.  Both my schedule and the numbers have settled down, so here’s where we stand now.  Let’s start with the national graph. It’s important to note just how much the winter surge […]

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COVID-19

New case record

The 7-day case average in the US has reached a new high, 222,653.  The 7-day death average is at its second highest point, 2,686.  Both of these numbers are likely to rise over the next few days as the artificially low numbers recorded over the New Year holiday are replaced in the averages.  Here is […]

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COVID-19

A New Year

I haven’t done a numbers update in a couple of week as the numbers have been pretty wonky from the Holiday season.  Let’s start with a look back at 2020.   We ended the year with cumulative totals of 19,968,087 cases and 345,737 deaths.  So in the 10 months we’ve been tracking COVID, roughly one out […]

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Uncategorized

Safe Holidays

A fairly quick update on COVID numbers. The good news is that the growth in daily cases has slowed.  The 7 day average is at 215,729, which is about 5,000 more than it was a week ago.  That’s only a tenth of the increase it saw in the previous week.  The situation with deaths is […]

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Uncategorized

COVID and the World Wars

It looks like the bulk of the data disturbance around Thanksgiving is behind us.  Both cases and deaths are at about the level we would have expected had they simply kept growing at pre Thanksgiving rates.  My expectation is that any further effects from Thanksgiving will be dwarfed by growth rates.  Let’s see where we […]

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COVID-19

After Thanksgiving

We’re now a week our from Thanksgiving.  Here’s what the graph looks like. As expected, we’ve seen a big dip in cases and deaths over the last week.  Remember that dip is a dip in reporting, not in actual cases or deaths.  The virus doesn’t take time off for long holiday weekends, but the people […]

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COVID-19

Beginning of Thanksgiving Week

Cases and deaths keep rising.  The 7-day average for cases is 170,856, for deaths it is 1,511.  Still there is some good news mixed in.  The rise in cases has been slowing down.  Looking at week-over-week numbers (comparing each day to the same day a week earlier), the rate of increase has steadily dropped from […]

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COVID-19

A week before Thanksgiving

Cases continue to rise and accelerate across the nation, however, there is some evidence that the rate of acceleration has decreased over the last week. It’s too soon to know whether that decrease is part of a longer trend, but given that states are increasing efforts to reduce infection rates, it’s possible.  As with so […]