Categories
COVID-19

Surging Surge

The surge is still surging.   Wednesday saw 78,981 new cases which brought the 7-day average up to 74,340.  That average has increased by about 14,000 over the last week.  If that rate of increase continues, it will be over 80,000 sometime this weekend.  Based on the usual weekly cycle, Thursday, Friday and Saturday will […]

Categories
COVID-19

The Rise of Fall

Friday and Saturday were the two highest days for case numbers in the US so far, each over 83,000.  Our previous high had been about 78,310, so that’s quite a jump.  The 7 day average now stands at 66,970 just below the summer peak of 67,463.  At the rate cases have been increasing, we should […]

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COVID-19

Approaching the July Peak

Case numbers continue to rise and to accelerate.  Daily deaths are still fairly low but have begun to rise over the last week.  Here’s the graph to start us off. Yesterday’s case count is the third highest on record, exceeded only by the 16th and 24th of July.  The 7 day case average is higher […]

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COVID-19

Infection rates and maps

Daily case counts in the US continue to rise and to accelerate.  Our current levels are about the same as they were in early August.  Here is the national graph. You can see the blue line rising at the right side of the graph.  The fact that the line not only rises but is cupped […]

Categories
COVID-19

Surge #3

It is now apparent that not only are case numbers rising, but that the rise is accelerating.  We appear to be at the beginning of another large surge.  My best guess is that this will be at least as large as the one in July.  This one is starting off a bit more slowly, but […]

Categories
COVID-19

Rising Worry

While there is still a higher than usual amount of noise in the numbers, it is increasingly clear that daily case numbers are steadily rising nationally and that the increase is quite widespread.  About half of the states show increasing trends in case numbers and no states are showing clear, sustained declines. Our 7-day average […]

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Politics

On Court Packing

This has been bouncing around in my head and I had to write it down to get it out. Have at it. – How I would respond to the question about packing the court if I were Biden. – To begin, it’s important to understand that the court has already been packed and that many […]

Categories
COVID-19

Continuing to Rise

The daily case numbers have continued to rise at the national level.  In my last post I mentioned a large spike in the data from Texas.  However, national numbers have continued to rise even since that time.  We are about 1,000 cases per day higher than we were just after that spike a week ago.  […]

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COVID-19

Anomalous Data

Two days ago, I said that it looked like cases were levelling off at pre-Labor Day levels.  But this morning, the graph looks more dire.  Let’s look at the graph first, and then I’ll explain what I think is going on. As you can see, the graph has continued to rise rather than levelling off.  […]

Categories
COVID-19

Heading in to Fall

I meant to write this a few days ago.  The lapsed time has turned what would have been a provisional conclusion into one of which I am fairly certain.  The recent steep decline and fast rise in reported cases per day seem to mostly be an artifact of the long holiday weekend rather than a […]