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COVID-19

Independent or Dependent?

Daily cases are falling, daily deaths may be close to peaking, but there are problems with the data.  Those are the takeaways for today. Cases are falling faster than I would have expected nationally.  Just as the rise was driven by California, Texas, and Florida, the decline is also.  The fact that the national decline […]

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Falling a bit faster than expected

The high level overview is that daily cases continue to decrease while daily deaths continue to increase.  It appears that daily cases may be decreasing more rapidly than I would have anticipated, but it will take a few more days before that settles out.  The real question about cases is how far they will drop.  […]

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COVID-19

On the high plateau

I’ve recently taken on some extra contract work and so don’t have as much time to devote to these updates.  I’m going to aim for a couple per week, though I’ll try to add an extra if there are specific issues. Nationally, case numbers continue at a high plateau with perhaps some slight decrease.  Daily […]

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Uncategorized

On Hold

There’s not a lot new to say about the numbers this morning.  The national case numbers have stopped growing, but it’s not yet clear whether they will begin to fall and if so, how quickly they might do so.  National deaths continue to rise slowly but they are accelerating.  The picture is obscured by the […]

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COVID-19

Cresting

Daily case numbers at the national level seem to be cresting.  The 7 day average has been within a 1500 point range for the last week.  During this period, California, Florida, and Texas, by far the biggest contributors, have been flat or perhaps slightly declining.  This is excellent news, though there are some concerns and […]

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COVID-19

Slowing

The national numbers seem to be slowing over the last several days.  They’re still rising, but not as quickly as they were.  The slowing seems to be driven by a similar pattern in Florida, Texas, and California.  These states have been responsible for nearly 50% of daily cases recently, so as they slow down, so […]

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COVID-19

Be Better, America

The big picture remains largely the same.  The Sun Belt and Western states’ case numbers are rising quickly.  Other areas are rising more slowly, but are picking up steam.  A handful of states don’t show rising numbers, they aren’t concentrated in a single region.  No matter where you live, either your state or a neighboring […]

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COVID-19

Still Rising

Nationally, the virus numbers continue along the same path.  We’re seeing a broad pattern of increasing infections and deaths across the country.  About three quarters of states are reporting rising daily case numbers and half report rising daily death numbers.  Of those that aren’t rising, only a handful report falling numbers in either category.   Florida, […]

Categories
COVID-19

Daily Deaths Start to Rise

Growth has been largely as anticipated over the last few days.  Our actual case counts are only slightly below the last projection I ran.  There are two changes to the growth patterns that may seem small at this point but that could have a large impact depending on how they develop.  Before I get in […]

Categories
COVID-19

Passing 3 Million

We’ve reached 3 million cumulative cases on all the trackers now.  As expected, the numbers were a little noisy over the holiday weekend with different trackers showing somewhat different numbers.  The Johns Hopkins tracker registered more than 60,000 cases yesterday, a record number.  1point2acres and worldometer showed lower numbers yesterday but higher numbers the previous […]