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COVID-19

Anomalous Data

Two days ago, I said that it looked like cases were levelling off at pre-Labor Day levels.  But this morning, the graph looks more dire.  Let’s look at the graph first, and then I’ll explain what I think is going on. As you can see, the graph has continued to rise rather than levelling off.  […]

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COVID-19

Heading in to Fall

I meant to write this a few days ago.  The lapsed time has turned what would have been a provisional conclusion into one of which I am fairly certain.  The recent steep decline and fast rise in reported cases per day seem to mostly be an artifact of the long holiday weekend rather than a […]

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COVID-19

Labor Day and Sturgis

I haven’t written about COVID in a while because up until this weekend the pattern had been pretty steady.  However, over the weekend the 7 day average has dropped considerably, about 5000 cases per day over 5 days, as can be seen in this graph. There are reasons to be suspicious about this drop, but […]

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COVID-19

September 1

Here we are at September.  6 months ago the virus was just starting to impact our lives. There was an outbreak in Washington, but only 2 deaths in the country so far.  New York had just reported its first case.  In the last 6 months, we have seen more than 6 million cases and well […]

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COVID-19

COVID and Smoke

In my last update, I said it looked like we were leveling off at about 50,000 cases per day.  It seems that was premature as we have gone back to decreasing fairly rapidly.  Our 7 day average is down to about 45,000 and appears to still be decreasing.  We’ve still got a long way to […]

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COVID-19

Testing decreases

The big picture on reported numbers is pretty clear.  After peaking in late July, reported cases are starting to stabilize at about twice the level of the previous cycle.  April and May saw an average of between 20 and 30 thousand cases per day.  We seem to be levelling off in the vicinity of  50 […]

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COVID-19

Independent or Dependent?

Daily cases are falling, daily deaths may be close to peaking, but there are problems with the data.  Those are the takeaways for today. Cases are falling faster than I would have expected nationally.  Just as the rise was driven by California, Texas, and Florida, the decline is also.  The fact that the national decline […]

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COVID-19

Falling a bit faster than expected

The high level overview is that daily cases continue to decrease while daily deaths continue to increase.  It appears that daily cases may be decreasing more rapidly than I would have anticipated, but it will take a few more days before that settles out.  The real question about cases is how far they will drop.  […]

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COVID-19

On the high plateau

I’ve recently taken on some extra contract work and so don’t have as much time to devote to these updates.  I’m going to aim for a couple per week, though I’ll try to add an extra if there are specific issues. Nationally, case numbers continue at a high plateau with perhaps some slight decrease.  Daily […]

Categories
COVID-19

On Hold

There’s not a lot new to say about the numbers this morning.  The national case numbers have stopped growing, but it’s not yet clear whether they will begin to fall and if so, how quickly they might do so.  National deaths continue to rise slowly but they are accelerating.  The picture is obscured by the […]