Hardy ThoughtsGrowth has been largely as anticipated over the last few days. Our actual case counts are only slightly below the last projection I ran. There are two changes to the growth patterns that may seem small at this point but that could have a large impact depending on how they develop. Before I get in […]
We’ve reached 3 million cumulative cases on all the trackers now. As expected, the numbers were a little noisy over the holiday weekend with different trackers showing somewhat different numbers. The Johns Hopkins tracker registered more than 60,000 cases yesterday, a record number. 1point2acres and worldometer showed lower numbers yesterday but higher numbers the previous […]
Things continue largely as they were when I posted on 6/30. The nation as a whole has averaged about 43,000 cases per day over the last week. Daily case numbers are growing rapidly with more than 50,000 cases on 7/1. Total cases to date are growing exponentially at about 1.8% per day, though that rate […]
The big change over the last few days is that it has become apparent that most states now have rising case numbers. In fact, it is far easier to just list those that don’t. Here are the 14 states that are not rising. Connecticut, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North […]
40,000 The big news is that the nation passed 40,000 new cases in a day for the first time last night. That number is more than 10% above the highest numbers we saw in April. Here is the current graph for new cases. As you can see we’re still rising. Further, our rise is […]
I’m starting with a graphic from Johns Hopkins. It shows the daily cases for the US since the beginning of the pandemic. There are two things to notice in this graph. First, the low points in May are only about a third lower than the typical rates at the peak. As the country started reopening, […]
New cases have continued to increase over the last few days, largely as anticipated. But while the nation as a whole sees slightly rising numbers, some states are rising alarmingly while others are steady or declining. Today I’m updating the list of rising and non-rising states. Here is how I see them as of this […]
National Numbers Yesterday, June 18, saw 27,762 new cases added nationally. To put this in perspective, let’s look at the national graph for new cases. About two weeks ago there was a higher spike of 29,972 cases. However, that spike was driven by a single state, Michigan, recording a backlog of over 5,000 probable cases. […]
The central point of my post on Monday was that the states with rising numbers were accelerating in such a way that their daily increase would soon outweigh the daily decrease in non-rising states, and that as a result the national numbers as a whole would soon begin to rise. There is some evidence in […]
Recently, my posts have focused on the number of cases added each day rather than on cumulative totals or percentage rates of growth. Today I’m going to return to looking at percentage rates of increases so the graphs will look a bit different than they have. Why Switch? Infections want to spread exponentially – the […]