Hardy ThoughtsSometime today or tomorrow, depending on your choice of tracker, we will cross the threshold of 100,000 reported deaths from COVID-19. Of course we passed 100,000 actual deaths some weeks ago. Excess mortality estimates put actual deaths 30-50% higher than reported deaths. That would have put us at 100,000 deaths sometime in the first week […]
Some US states began reopening before the beginning of May and the rest have followed suit since then. We’ve been waiting to see the results of the reopening, and the numbers have finally stabilized enough to show them. The expectation was that reopening would result in more cases than remaining closed, and this is supported […]
We’re still in the doldrums waiting for a clear sign on the effect of reopening. This at least means that reopenings have not caused immediate surges. However, there are some indications of rising numbers, though they aren’t yet conclusive in general. Overall, it’s too soon to tell. There are a few clear cases. Texas started […]
Vaccines We’re all waiting anxiously for a vaccine, and vaccine development is progressing with unprecedented speed. There are a number of promising trials at various stages. The Trump administration has set a goal of having widespread vaccination by the end of the year. Despite all this, it’s important to remember that meeting such a goal […]
As far as the numbers go, we’ve been waiting to see whether Sundays’ very low numbers represent a real improvement or just noise, and we’ve been waiting for the first signs of reopening to appear. We have some preliminary answers on both counts. **Sunday’s Numbers** On Sunday, May 10, both the new case and new […]
The national numbers have bounced back up somewhat since Sunday’s drop but are still lower than they were a week ago. However, the difference is considerably less than it was. On Sunday, the week over week new case numbers were down by 5791 cases. Tuesday’s new case number was down only 2283 cases from the […]
Yesterday’s new cases and deaths were the lowest we’ve seen in a long time. On the Johns Hopkins tracker, there were 19,710 new cases and 731 deaths on May 10. These are the lowest numbers we’ve seen since the end of March. If that sounds like great news, it is. However, it’s worth digging into […]
The numbers are boring this week. We’re plugging along at about the speed we have been with little to no detectable change. Even the weekly cycle is about the same. New York and New Jersey are still in decline and driving the national numbers down while other states drive them up. We’re in a holding […]
In January, we heard about the virus. In February, it landed on our shores. March saw the beginning of the exponential explosion. In April, the growth seemed to reach a plateau. What will May bring? May depends on the balance of three things: The infectious pressure of the virus, the effects of social distancing, and […]
There are a number of things to talk about before we get to a projection. Reopening We’re seeing an increasing number of places relax social distancing rules. This will almost undoubtedly have an effect on the spread of the virus, but that effect won’t show up for a bit. Because we don’t have widespread testing […]