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COVID-19

On Hold

There’s not a lot new to say about the numbers this morning.  The national case numbers have stopped growing, but it’s not yet clear whether they will begin to fall and if so, how quickly they might do so.  National deaths continue to rise slowly but they are accelerating.  The picture is obscured by the […]

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COVID-19

Cresting

Daily case numbers at the national level seem to be cresting.  The 7 day average has been within a 1500 point range for the last week.  During this period, California, Florida, and Texas, by far the biggest contributors, have been flat or perhaps slightly declining.  This is excellent news, though there are some concerns and […]

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COVID-19

Slowing

The national numbers seem to be slowing over the last several days.  They’re still rising, but not as quickly as they were.  The slowing seems to be driven by a similar pattern in Florida, Texas, and California.  These states have been responsible for nearly 50% of daily cases recently, so as they slow down, so […]

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COVID-19

Be Better, America

The big picture remains largely the same.  The Sun Belt and Western states’ case numbers are rising quickly.  Other areas are rising more slowly, but are picking up steam.  A handful of states don’t show rising numbers, they aren’t concentrated in a single region.  No matter where you live, either your state or a neighboring […]

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COVID-19

Still Rising

Nationally, the virus numbers continue along the same path.  We’re seeing a broad pattern of increasing infections and deaths across the country.  About three quarters of states are reporting rising daily case numbers and half report rising daily death numbers.  Of those that aren’t rising, only a handful report falling numbers in either category.   Florida, […]

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COVID-19

Daily Deaths Start to Rise

Growth has been largely as anticipated over the last few days.  Our actual case counts are only slightly below the last projection I ran.  There are two changes to the growth patterns that may seem small at this point but that could have a large impact depending on how they develop.  Before I get in […]

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COVID-19

Passing 3 Million

We’ve reached 3 million cumulative cases on all the trackers now.  As expected, the numbers were a little noisy over the holiday weekend with different trackers showing somewhat different numbers.  The Johns Hopkins tracker registered more than 60,000 cases yesterday, a record number.  1point2acres and worldometer showed lower numbers yesterday but higher numbers the previous […]

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COVID-19

Continuing to Rise

Things continue largely as they were when I posted on 6/30. The nation as a whole has averaged about 43,000 cases per day over the last week.  Daily case numbers are growing rapidly with more than 50,000 cases on 7/1.  Total cases to date are growing exponentially at about 1.8% per day, though that rate […]

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COVID-19

Tempting Fate

The big change over the last few days is that it has become apparent that most states now have rising case numbers.  In fact, it is far easier to just list those that don’t.  Here are the 14 states that are not rising. Connecticut, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North […]

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COVID-19

The Big Three

40,000 The big news is that the nation passed 40,000 new cases in a day for the first time last night.   That number is more than 10% above the highest numbers we saw in April.  Here is the current graph for new cases. As you can see we’re still rising. Further, our rise is […]