Hardy ThoughtsYesterday’s new cases and deaths were the lowest we’ve seen in a long time. On the Johns Hopkins tracker, there were 19,710 new cases and 731 deaths on May 10. These are the lowest numbers we’ve seen since the end of March. If that sounds like great news, it is. However, it’s worth digging into […]
The numbers are boring this week. We’re plugging along at about the speed we have been with little to no detectable change. Even the weekly cycle is about the same. New York and New Jersey are still in decline and driving the national numbers down while other states drive them up. We’re in a holding […]
In January, we heard about the virus. In February, it landed on our shores. March saw the beginning of the exponential explosion. In April, the growth seemed to reach a plateau. What will May bring? May depends on the balance of three things: The infectious pressure of the virus, the effects of social distancing, and […]
There are a number of things to talk about before we get to a projection. Reopening We’re seeing an increasing number of places relax social distancing rules. This will almost undoubtedly have an effect on the spread of the virus, but that effect won’t show up for a bit. Because we don’t have widespread testing […]
Some Background on Accuracy As I’ve watched the tracker at 1point3acres approach one million cumulative cases, a milestone it will reach sometime later today, I’ve become increasingly aware of the disparity in numbers between the trackers. For example, here are the most recent numbers from several trackers: 1point3acres 994,704 Johns Hopkins 968,203 New York Times […]
There are a couple of interesting developments that relate to the numbers. I’ll discuss those and then move on to the projection. Antibody Testing First, we have more results from antibody testing, most notably from New York. New York tested about 3,000 people “at random” and concluded that nearly 14% of state residents had been […]
An important piece of information came out this morning, three previously unreported deaths in Santa Clara County very early on. The earliest of these was on February 6th, more than three weeks before the previously known first death in the US. This is important. The earliest known case in California had been January 26th, […]
We’re starting to see the first results from antibody testing to try to determine how widespread COVID-19 infections have been. We now have multiple studies reporting infection rates in the 2-3% range. Reactions to these results have been mixed, with some saying that are alarmingly high and others lamenting how low they are. I want […]
In my last projection I noted that deaths that were probably COVID related had begun to be included in some trackers. This has become more widespread with most trackers including them The primary exception is The Covid Tracking Project which is focused on testing and confirmed cases. I’ll be following the herd and projecting numbers […]
By now you may have heard of the study out of Stanford which estimates that infection rates are much higher than previously believed and so that the mortality rate is much lower. This is the type of study that we need to see more of, and I don’t want to denigrate the work done. However, […]