Yesterday morning, we passed 10,000 cases. This morning we’re at over 16,000. That’s a 60% increase. Yesterday’s midnight to midnight growth rate was 53%, that’s what I’ll mostly use in this post. The day before saw an increase of 47% The day before that was 38%. Obviously, the growth rate has been accelerating. The good […]
Tag: #coronavirus
So we’ve reached 10,000 cases in the US about a day earlier than our projection estimated. What does that mean? There are several things it could mean. I’m going to go through a list of possibilities in roughly the order of increasing probability. 1) The virus has gotten stronger.This is possible, but highly unlikely. To […]
Categories
Ahead of Schedule
3 days ago I posted a projection of the increase in cases of coronavirus in the US based on a 3 day doubling period, which was about what we were seeing at the time. We had about 2500 cases then. This morning the tracker I use (more about that later) shows us at 5286 cases. […]
Categories
First Projection
As of this morning (3/14), we’re over 2500 confirmed coronavirus cases in the US. We gained more than 500 cases yesterday. I expect us to be over 3000 by the time we wake up tomorrow. Our doubling time is less than 3 days right now and has been for a while. So long as that […]