Hardy ThoughtsCase numbers continue to rise and to accelerate. Daily deaths are still fairly low but have begun to rise over the last week. Here’s the graph to start us off. Yesterday’s case count is the third highest on record, exceeded only by the 16th and 24th of July. The 7 day case average is higher […]
Daily case counts in the US continue to rise and to accelerate. Our current levels are about the same as they were in early August. Here is the national graph. You can see the blue line rising at the right side of the graph. The fact that the line not only rises but is cupped […]
It is now apparent that not only are case numbers rising, but that the rise is accelerating. We appear to be at the beginning of another large surge. My best guess is that this will be at least as large as the one in July. This one is starting off a bit more slowly, but […]
While there is still a higher than usual amount of noise in the numbers, it is increasingly clear that daily case numbers are steadily rising nationally and that the increase is quite widespread. About half of the states show increasing trends in case numbers and no states are showing clear, sustained declines. Our 7-day average […]
This has been bouncing around in my head and I had to write it down to get it out. Have at it. – How I would respond to the question about packing the court if I were Biden. – To begin, it’s important to understand that the court has already been packed and that many […]
The daily case numbers have continued to rise at the national level. In my last post I mentioned a large spike in the data from Texas. However, national numbers have continued to rise even since that time. We are about 1,000 cases per day higher than we were just after that spike a week ago. […]
Two days ago, I said that it looked like cases were levelling off at pre-Labor Day levels. But this morning, the graph looks more dire. Let’s look at the graph first, and then I’ll explain what I think is going on. As you can see, the graph has continued to rise rather than levelling off. […]
I meant to write this a few days ago. The lapsed time has turned what would have been a provisional conclusion into one of which I am fairly certain. The recent steep decline and fast rise in reported cases per day seem to mostly be an artifact of the long holiday weekend rather than a […]
I haven’t written about COVID in a while because up until this weekend the pattern had been pretty steady. However, over the weekend the 7 day average has dropped considerably, about 5000 cases per day over 5 days, as can be seen in this graph. There are reasons to be suspicious about this drop, but […]
Here we are at September. 6 months ago the virus was just starting to impact our lives. There was an outbreak in Washington, but only 2 deaths in the country so far. New York had just reported its first case. In the last 6 months, we have seen more than 6 million cases and well […]