The last four days have all seen new case numbers over 100,000, the last three were over 120,000. The national 7-day average for cases has risen to 103,879 and is rising exponentially. 36 states have 7-day averages over 1,000.
Each of the last five days have seen nationwide deaths from COVID above 1,000. The 7-day average for deaths stands at 931. Deaths are also rising exponentially.
Here is the chart.
I don’t have a lot of deep analysis to offer here other than that this is the very opposite of good. We’ll hit 10 million cumulative cases on Monday, and we’ll add another million every 10 days or less until we peak. Deaths will continue to rise until a couple of weeks after we get cases under control, and I would expect them to accelerate ever more rapidly until then. Realistically, we’re looking at over 15 million cases by the end of the year, though it could be much higher if we keep accelerating. It’s harder to predict death numbers as so much depends on how our medical infrastructure holds up. As it starts to get overwhelmed, we could see levels closer to April than August. On our current path the total dead will likely be more than 300,000 by the end of the year. That’s without factoring overwhelmed medical infrastructure.
A great deal depends on the will of the nation. The more we let abiding by best practices for reducing the spread be determined by politics, the worse we will fare. While politicians certainly have an influence here, it’s up to each of us to decide how we will act. I encourage everyone to act on the basis of public health rather than partisan politics.