Categories
COVID-19

10,000

So we’ve reached 10,000 cases in the US about a day earlier than our projection estimated.  What does that mean? There are several things it could mean.  I’m going to go through a list of possibilities in roughly the order of increasing probability. 1) The virus has gotten stronger.This is possible, but highly unlikely.  To […]

Categories
COVID-19

Ahead of Schedule

3 days ago I posted a projection of the increase in cases of coronavirus in the US based on a 3 day doubling period, which was about what we were seeing at the time. We had about 2500 cases then. This morning the tracker I use (more about that later) shows us at 5286 cases. […]

Categories
COVID-19

First Projection

As of this morning (3/14), we’re over 2500 confirmed coronavirus cases in the US. We gained more than 500 cases yesterday. I expect us to be over 3000 by the time we wake up tomorrow. Our doubling time is less than 3 days right now and has been for a while. So long as that […]