First Projection

As of this morning (3/14), we’re over 2500 confirmed coronavirus cases in the US. We gained more than 500 cases yesterday. I expect us to be over 3000 by the time we wake up tomorrow. Our doubling time is less than 3 days right now and has been for a while. So long as that holds, it’s: 2500 today, 5000 Tuesday, 10,000 Friday, 20,000 the following Monday, 40,000 on the 26th, 80,000 on the 29th, and 160,000 on April 1.

It’s time to think about how each of us can individually reduce the growth rate. The exponential curve means that every action you take today pays expanded dividends in the future. Your staying home today may be the difference in one less person dying over the next few weeks. Washing your hands may mean one less person needs to be in the hospital. Act sooner rather than later.

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