Hardy ThoughtsI’m going to lead with numbers today and follow with some thoughts on what they might mean. Growth rates for reported cases and deaths continue to decline, though that decline seems to be slowing. For example, here are the growth and death rates for the past week. This is the percentage increase from the previous […]
Growth rates overall continue to decline. To be clear, cases and deaths continue to grow exponentially, but the rate of that growth is not as fast as it was. Over the last 5 days, cases have grown at an average of about 10% per day while deaths have grown at an average of about 17%. […]
Now for some numbers. There’s some good news here. The growth rates for reported cases and deaths have been steadily falling over the last several days. As a result, our current numbers are lower than the last projection. (As a reminder, I’m now using the end of day numbers from https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en as this gives me a […]
There’s been a lot of signalling that the next two weeks are the hardest, with the Surgeon General comparing this week as our ‘Pearl Harbor’ moment. While these next two weeks will likely be worse than the last two weeks, I want to throw some cold water on the idea that these are the worst […]
April is the cruelest month. We crossed the 250,000 reported cases benchmark last night. New York state has over 100,000 cases with more than half of those within New York City. Nearly all states are experiencing exponential growth in reported cases with several near or above the 10,000 reported case thresholds. As these states develop […]
We’ve now crossed 200,000 cumulative reported cases. Over the last 7 days, we have averaged a 19% increase in reported cases per day. It’s important to remember that these numbers are only reported cases. Problems with testing availability and process are commonplace and make these numbers unreliable as an indication of the true spread of […]
By now you will have heard the White House speak of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. I’ve sort of been avoiding looking at the mortality numbers as directly as I do the case numbers. There are a number of reasons for that, some of them having to do with data, but mostly because it’s emotionally […]
The US currently has 156,633 cases. It’s clear that we’ll pass 160,000 cases sometime today. The bad news is that we’re 2 days ahead of the original projection I did on the 14th. That projection had us at 160,000 on April 1. The good news is that we’re 24,000 cases behind the projection I did […]
When I ran a projection at 25% yesterday, it showed us at 118,750 for this morning. Right now the tracker shows 115,235. I wouldn’t make too much of that difference. Yes, every bit lower today is magnified over time, so it really is good to miss the projections on the low end. On the other […]
I’ve been struggling a bit with what to say about the US’ new position as having the most cumulative cases in the world, as well as a high growth rate. I’m going to start by updating the projection, and then I’m going to say something about how I think we got to this place. Yesterday […]