Now for some numbers.
There’s some good news here. The growth rates for reported cases and deaths have been steadily falling over the last several days. As a result, our current numbers are lower than the last projection. (As a reminder, I’m now using the end of day numbers from https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en as this gives me a more consistent frame for analyses.) The last projection had us at 383,984 cases and 11,590 deaths. Instead, the numbers last night were 338,142 and 9675. That puts us almost a day behind the projection. This is to be expected with falling growth rates. The last projection was based on growth rates of 16% and 24%, today’s will be based on rates of 12% and 21%, which are the average growth rates over the last 5 days. Here’s a ballpark of what to expect for the next 10 days.
Reported Cases
4/6 379,601
4/7 426,143
4/8 478,392
4/9 537,047
4/10 602,893
4/11 676,813
4/12 759,796
4/13 852,953
4/14 857,532
4/15 1,074,934
Reported Deaths
4/6 11,698
4/7 14,143
4/8 17,100
4/9 20,675
4/10 24,998
4/11 30,224
4/12 36,542
4/13 44,182
4/14 53,419
4/15 64,587
All of my usual caveats apply. These are just the numbers assuming the reports continue to grow as they have. With the differences between reported and actual numbers and the uncertainty surrounding testing and reporting, that assumption is surely wrong. However, it’s useful to have at least some idea of what the near term future may look like.
Stay safe, healthy, and home.