Hardy ThoughtsWe’ve now crossed 200,000 cumulative reported cases. Over the last 7 days, we have averaged a 19% increase in reported cases per day. It’s important to remember that these numbers are only reported cases. Problems with testing availability and process are commonplace and make these numbers unreliable as an indication of the true spread of […]
By now you will have heard the White House speak of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. I’ve sort of been avoiding looking at the mortality numbers as directly as I do the case numbers. There are a number of reasons for that, some of them having to do with data, but mostly because it’s emotionally […]
The US currently has 156,633 cases. It’s clear that we’ll pass 160,000 cases sometime today. The bad news is that we’re 2 days ahead of the original projection I did on the 14th. That projection had us at 160,000 on April 1. The good news is that we’re 24,000 cases behind the projection I did […]
When I ran a projection at 25% yesterday, it showed us at 118,750 for this morning. Right now the tracker shows 115,235. I wouldn’t make too much of that difference. Yes, every bit lower today is magnified over time, so it really is good to miss the projections on the low end. On the other […]
I’ve been struggling a bit with what to say about the US’ new position as having the most cumulative cases in the world, as well as a high growth rate. I’m going to start by updating the projection, and then I’m going to say something about how I think we got to this place. Yesterday […]
The projection from two days ago had us above 83,000 for today. As I look at the tracker, we’re only at 76,543. That’s good news, and I always get a smile when a number has some interesting pattern in it. It’s too early to tell whether the curve is flattening or if this is just […]
We crossed the threshold of 1000 COVID deaths this evening. As I start to write this post, the tracker shows 1045. I’ve focused mostly on the growth rate of cases thus far, so let me switch to deaths. Deaths are the saddest part of all this, though it’s the hospitalizations that stand to overwhelm our […]
Welcome to 50,000 reported cases, of which roughly half are in New York. In other news this morning, India announced a total lock down of the entire country for 3 weeks, “a total ban on venturing out of your homes”, as the Prime Minister said. India has a population of 1.3 billion people. So, with […]
Headlines this morning carry a message from the surgeon general, “This week, it’s going to get bad.” He went on to say, “Everyone needs to act as if they have the virus right now. So, test or no test, we need you to understand you could be spreading it to someone else. Or you could […]
We now have more than 40,000 reported cases. We’re running 3 days ahead of the projection I made back on the 14th. At our current growth rate, we’ll be adding more than 10,000 cases per day now. Expect to see the numbers grow alarmingly this week. We’re still on track to be over 100k by […]