In my last update, I said it looked like we were leveling off at about 50,000 cases per day. It seems that was premature as we have gone back to decreasing fairly rapidly. Our 7 day average is down to about 45,000 and appears to still be decreasing. We’ve still got a long way to go to reach the numbers we saw in June.
The 7 day average of daily deaths from COVID has remained relatively steady at about a thousand per day. Yesterday it dipped to 987, the first time the average has been below 1,000 since July 27. Here’s what the national numbers look like.
All else being equal, we should expect deaths to continue to decline as cases do. However, there are still concerns about how testing rates are affecting the reported case numbers. Texas seems to have increased its testing somewhat, but Florida and several other states continue to test fewer and fewer people. Additionally, the California fires may have an impact on mortality. A million acres have burned so far and that number is likely to increase dramatically. Smoke from the fires covers about half of the contiguous 48 states, as seen in this map.
Remember that COVID most typically presents as a respiratory virus. The added stress of breathing smoke may mean the difference between a mild case and needing hospitalization. We don’t know for sure how smoke and COVID will interact, but it’s reasonable to think that the result of two respiratory stressors will be worse than the effect of either individually. Then there’s the question of how the smoke impacts transmission. We don’t know whether there will be an effect or if there is, in which direction it will be. Smoky air will tend to move people indoors more. If they stay home, infection rates may decline. If they gather in groups, infection rates may increase. In any case the fires are big enough to be concerning with regard to COVID.
Here’s a view of what the next 10 days may bring. It looks like we may hit 6 million cases and 185 thousand deaths before the end of August.
| Day | Cases | Deaths |
| 8/21 | 5,622,388 | 175,360 |
| 8/22 | 5,668,055 | 176,347 |
| 8/23 | 5,713,722 | 177,463 |
| 8/24 | 5,759,389 | 178,580 |
| 8/25 | 5,805,056 | 179,696 |
| 8/26 | 5,850,723 | 180,813 |
| 8/27 | 5,896,390 | 181,929 |
| 8/28 | 5,942,057 | 183,045 |
| 8/29 | 5,987,724 | 184,162 |
| 8/30 | 6,033,391 | 185,278 |
| 8/31 | 6,079,058 | 186,395 |
Be safe. Pay extra attention if you’re in the smoke affected areas.