The national numbers seem to be slowing over the last several days. They’re still rising, but not as quickly as they were. The slowing seems to be driven by a similar pattern in Florida, Texas, and California. These states have been responsible for nearly 50% of daily cases recently, so as they slow down, so does the nation. This is a similar pattern to what we saw with New York in March and April. At the same time, daily deaths are still rising, and I would expect that to continue for two or three weeks even if the case numbers start to fall a bit. Here’s the national chart.
Whether the slowing is temporary or lasting will depend on not only these states but the many states whose numbers are smaller but still rising. Eleven other states are averaging more than 1,000 cases per day, and sixteen more states are averaging more than 500 per day.
In truth, what really matters is how we as a society respond to the slowing. If we all breathe a sigh of relief and try to get back to normal, as we did when the numbers crested in April, then we’ll see a period of stability at roughly current levels followed by another rise when. It will require a lot of sustained effort to reduce case numbers to even the levels we saw at the height of April. Thus far, the nation has shown no inclination to do that work. I hope that changes, but I’m not optimistic that it will.
There is also good news on the vaccine front. The three contenders who are furthest along, Oxford/Astrazeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Moderna, have all reported encouraging results in early trials and are now in more extended trials. These trials have been shortened from what is usually required, but will still take months to complete. There simply is no way to know whether a vaccine has negative and/or positive outcomes except to give it to a lot of people in a controlled fashion and wait to see what happens. The earliest we could hope for approval of one of these vaccines is early October, and that’s if everything goes perfectly and the data are strong and clear. Then there’s the issue of getting the vaccine manufactured and distributed.
One reason it’s good to have large pharmaceutical companies involved is that they have the infrastructure and deep pockets to manufacture a lot of vaccines. Pfizer is a good example here. In a recent interview ( https://time.com/5864690/pfizer-vaccine-coronavirus/ ) Pfizer’s CEO said that they were planning to begin manufacturing vaccine before completing the final trials. If the trials fail, they’ll simply lose the money spent on that. Here are some quote from that interview. I have to say I’m impressed with their attitude.
“We will just have to write it off and call it a day. We will throw it away. It’s only money we’re going to lose. . . .if you were calculating return on investment, we would never do these things. We were discussing that back in March, what that means to human lives, to the economy of the world. So it was a must, that we must take those measures. . .The vaccine should be free to all people. We are not giving it away to governments. We are going to charge governments … a very, very nominal value. But our intent is to ask governments that they should, for these prices, they should provide it free of charge to all citizens.”
There’s a standard example in business ethics of Merck giving away the cure for “river blindness”, a particularly nasty parasite that happens to proliferate in regions where the people most afflicted would be unable to afford the cure. Merck opted to get the cure to people who needed it even though it meant they would make no money, and even take a loss, in doing so. It sounds like Pfizer is following suit. It is good to know that even in an industry as cutthroat as pharmaceuticals can be, there are still those that take ethics seriously. Kudos to Pfizer.
As the case numbers stabilize, resist the temptation to see it as a sign that you can relax a bit. Really, this is when it’s most important to double down on precautions. We have a choice to make. I wonder what we will choose.
Here is what the next ten days may bring. Our percentage growth rate has dropped and I’ve baked in that it will drop a bit more by calculating cases as a 1.8% of cumulative cases. I expect these numbers to be a bit off as it’s difficult to guess the degree of change will see in the growth rates.
| Day | Cases | Deaths |
| 7/21 | 3,899,059 | 141,992 |
| 7/22 | 3,969,242 | 142,499 |
| 7/23 | 4,047,833 | 143,175 |
| 7/24 | 4,127,980 | 143,852 |
| 7/25 | 4,209,714 | 144,528 |
| 7/26 | 4,293,066 | 145,205 |
| 7/27 | 4,378,069 | 145,881 |
| 7/28 | 4,464,755 | 146,557 |
| 7/29 | 4,553,157 | 147,234 |
| 7/30 | 4,643,310 | 147,910 |
| 7/31 | 4,735,247 | 148,586 |
As always, let me know if you want me to address anything specifically or if you want to see charts for specific states.
Be safe, and be kind.