The big picture remains largely the same. The Sun Belt and Western states’ case numbers are rising quickly. Other areas are rising more slowly, but are picking up steam. A handful of states don’t show rising numbers, they aren’t concentrated in a single region. No matter where you live, either your state or a neighboring one has rising case numbers. Still, you’d probably rather be in New England than the South for now. More detail below.
National
Yesterday set a national record for new cases at about 78,000. The previous record was about 67,000. (I’m using data from Johns Hopkins University. Other trackers may show somewhat different numbers, but the pattern should be the same.) Part of the record is due to a reporting anomaly in Texas in which 5,000 previously unreported cases were added. However, even without that anomaly, yesterday would still have been a record. The rise in cases is widespread. By my count, 41 states show rising case numbers, 2 show decreasing case numbers, and the other 8 (I’m treating DC as a state) are unclear.
Death rates at the national level have increased from earlier in the month, but for the past week have been bouncing around in the low 700s range. While there is little doubt that the rates will rise, I can’t confidently say that they are doing so at the moment, at least at the national level. So we’ve been at a bit of a lull in a longer term rising trend.
Here is what the numbers look like nationally.
States
Florida, Texas, and California continue to have the highest numbers. Remember that these are the three most populous states, so they have a lot of room to grow. Florida is now averaging more cases per day than New York did at the height of its outbreak in April. Fortunately, Florida’s daily death rate is still much lower than New York’s was. However, because also has one of the highest growth rates in the nation, there is cause for concern. Texas has the second highest daily case average, and is also growing quickly, though not quite as quickly as Florida. Both states have yet to make a substantial dent in their growth. California, on the other hand, may be leveling off. There’s a lot of noise in its recent numbers, so it’s hard to be sure, but at the very least California’s growth rate is much lower than Florida or Texas. Florida is growing at 4.5%, Texas at 3.7%, and California at 2.7%.
There’s good news for Arizona as cases seem to be decreasing there. Their death rate is still rising, but if they can continue to reduce the infection rate, the death rate will follow. Ranking states by their 7-day case average, Arizona has fallen from 4th to 5th, trading places with Georgia. The switch is the result both of Arizona’s falling numbers and Georgia’s rising numbers.
Here is a list of all states ordered by their 7 day average cases.
Again, things are rolling along pretty much as anticipated. While not surprising, that’s not good. It means that collectively we aren’t doing enough to control the spread of the virus. The virus is definitely winning at the moment. It may be spreading somewhat less slowly than it otherwise would, and doing somewhat less damage, but it is far from being under control. Our situation is far worse than that of our peer nations in the world. Europe and Asia largely have the virus under control, though not eradicated. Our closest analogs are now Brazil and India, but even those are unfair comparisons. No other nation has made progress against the virus and then let it regain the upper hand as we have. Not One. We are unique in having simply walked off the field while the game was still being played. Make whatever justification for that you wish, this is what we as a nation have decided to do. Until we make a different decision, things will continue to get worse. And yes, that doesn’t apply just to the virus, it applies to a whole range of issues in our society.
Be better, America, be better.