April is the cruelest month.
We crossed the 250,000 reported cases benchmark last night. New York state has over 100,000 cases with more than half of those within New York City. Nearly all states are experiencing exponential growth in reported cases with several near or above the 10,000 reported case thresholds. As these states develop caseloads large enough to meaningfully impact the national numbers, we may see growth patterns in reported case change. Right now, it’s all about New York, with a noticeable contribution fromNew Jersey, and just a few hints of other states. The astronomical rise in unemployment will likely also have an impact, but we don’t know how. On the one hand, people may stay home more as they don’t need to commute. On the other, unemployed people may go out more as they search for resources to help get their family through. We’ve had more people come to our property in the last few days than we usually do in several months as we try to support local tradespeople by finishing delayed projects. (Our property allows these projects to be done with minimal contact and we follow precautions both before they arrive and after they leave.) It’s very hard to predict how people will react. At least it’s hard for me to predict, I’m sure there are experts in relevant fields who would have informed prediction.
Over the last week, the average daily increase in reported cases has been about 16%. During the same period, reported deaths increased by an average of about 24% per day. I’ll use these growth rates and last night’s numbers from the tracker for today’s projection. Please remember that these are simply projections of the last week’s growth rates. There are many important variables that aren’t considered here. My goal is simply to give us an idea of where we’re headed so long as things don’t change. Speaking only for myself, I react better when I have at least some idea of what may lie ahead.
Reported Cases
4/3 285,362
4/4 331,020
4/5 383,984
4/6 445,421
4/7 516,688
4/8 599,358
4/9 695,256
4/10 806,497
4/11 935,536
4/12 1,085,222
Reported Deaths
4/3 7,538
4/4 9,347
4/5 11,590
4/6 14,372
4/7 17,821
4/8 22,098
4/9 27,402
4/10 33,979
4/11 42,133
4/12 52,246
The lack of a consistent, coherent federal system for testing and for reporting and cases and deaths continues to hamper our knowledge of how the virus is spreading, so remember that things may change. I’ve been trying to avoid politics in these posts, but it’s increasingly clear that we’re seeing the effects of a fractured and delayed federal response. Even handled well, this would be a difficult situation. The US is not handling it well at all. It shows in the numbers and will leave a mark on our society much deeper than that left by 9/11.