We’ve now crossed 200,000 cumulative reported cases. Over the last 7 days, we have averaged a 19% increase in reported cases per day. It’s important to remember that these numbers are only reported cases. Problems with testing availability and process are commonplace and make these numbers unreliable as an indication of the true spread of the virus. For example, California has over 50,000 tests that are backlogged at Quest Diagnostics. (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/next-covid-19-testing-crisis/609193/ ). CA currently has a positive test rate close to 30%. At that rate, CA may have at least 15,000 more cases than reported. We’re really only seeing the tip of the iceberg in these numbers. Still, they’re the only numbers we have, so they’re the numbers we can use. Just be sure to remember the limitations.
Starting at 200,000 and projecting out 10 days, here’s what the numbers would look like.
4/1 200,000
4/2 238,000
4/3 283,220
4/4 337,032
4/5 401,068
4/6 477,271
4/7 567,952
4/8 675,863
4/9 804,277
4/10 957,090
4/11 1,138,937
As our systems become increasingly stressed this month, I expect these numbers to become increasingly less reliable. Each test requires the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) and many places are prioritizing the use of PPE in treatment rather than testing. As noted above, some testing labs are simply not able to keep up with the testing rate. So, if you want to keep a sense of the scale of the crisis, it’s best to look not only at reported cases, but also at testing and death rates. I’ll try to come up with something helpful on how to do that without getting overwhelmed. That may be a day or three out though.
Stay safe, stay healthy, and stay at home.