{"id":366,"date":"2021-02-01T20:03:20","date_gmt":"2021-02-02T04:03:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/?p=366"},"modified":"2021-02-01T20:03:20","modified_gmt":"2021-02-02T04:03:20","slug":"covid-and-drunk-driving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/01\/covid-and-drunk-driving\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID and Drunk Driving"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As of the end of January national daily cases stand at about 150,000 down 40% from their peak of 250,000 early in the month.  Still that\u2019s more than twice the summer peak of about 70,000  The decline has been rapid, but seems to be moderating somewhat over the last week.  Daily deaths, on the other hand, have been relatively stable at 3100 -3300 for the last 3 weeks.  Here\u2019s the graph since March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The easiest explanation for why deaths remain high is simply that deaths always lag infection. \u00a0 A 3 week lag is a bit longer that we have seen, but not alarmingly so.\u00a0 It\u2019s also possible that we\u2019re still seeing some effect of the holiday noise in the data.\u00a0 Deaths that may not have been fully reported in late December may be showing up in reports now.\u00a0 A third contributing factor may be improvements in treatment.\u00a0 We know that improved treatments have greatly reduced the fatality of COVID.\u00a0 Even in cases where patients end up dying, they may take longer to do so.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have any data to support that; I haven\u2019t seen any recent studies on the average duration of fatal cases.\u00a0 But it does seem reasonable that a treatment that is able to save one patient might merely delay death in a more severe case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re wondering whether the new variants could have anything to do with the high death rates, I think the answer is \u201cno\u201d. There is some evidence that the UK variant is more severe.  However, the fact that we have only \u201csome evidence\u201d after this time means that it probably isn\u2019t enough more severe to account for what we see in the graph.  The South African variant does seem to be more severe but it is not yet widespread enough in the US to account for a noticeably higher death rate here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next week should bring some clarity on what\u2019s behind the high death rates nationally.  I expect we\u2019ll see them come down.  If we don\u2019t, then look for some story or information that explains that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decline in cases continues to be widespread.  Only two states, Arizona and South Carolina are seeing more than 70 cases per 100,000 population now.  3 weeks ago, about half the states were that high.  On the other hand, at the height of the summer surge, only one state was above 50.  Here is the current map.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Here is the corresponding map for deaths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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For the most part, the two maps mirror each other.  The most notable exception is Alabama which has by far the highest death rate while being middle of the pack for cases.  I don\u2019t have a good explanation for this.  It\u2019s death rates have climbed for the last month while its case numbers have dropped.  It may be worth keeping an eye on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re definitely doing better with regard to cases.  It\u2019s tempting to breathe a small sigh of relief.  But really, now is the time to double down on prevention.  In the summer we worried that we might see as many as 100,000 cases per day.  Now we\u2019re seeing \u201conly\u201d 150,000.  Don\u2019t let the feeling of relief fool you.  However much the situation has improved over the last few weeks, it is still quite dire.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a motivation for caution that you might not have thought of – it prevents dangerous variants.\u00a0 You\u2019ve probably noticed that all of a sudden we have a lot of variants.\u00a0 Back in the summer it was just D614G.\u00a0 Now, there\u2019s a UK variant, a South African variant and a Brazil variant.\u00a0 There\u2019s even talk of a California variant.\u00a0 Why are there so many all at once?\u00a0 The answer is alarmingly simple, it\u2019s because there are so many infections now.\u00a0 Mutations occur randomly when the virus reproduces.\u00a0 The more infections there are, the more the virus reproduces and the more mutations occur.\u00a0 The vast majority of mutations aren\u2019t worth mentioning, but a few change the virus in important ways, making it more or less infectious and more or less severe.\u00a0 Some mutations can help it evade vaccinations.\u00a0 Indeed, one of the worries about the South Africa Strain is that the vaccines are not as effective against it. They still work, but not as well.\u00a0 Nobody can guess what the next variant will be like, but we do know that the more infections there are, the more variants we\u2019ll see and the more likely we\u2019ll see a dangerous one.\u00a0 The longer we stay at these high levels of infection, the more variants will evolve with the potential for ever more dangerous ones.\u00a0 We need to get our infection levels down to at least the summer levels, preferably lower, so that we aren\u2019t generating new variants faster than we can respond to them.

This is why the idea that mask wearing and social distancing are \u201cpersonal choices\u201d is dead wrong.\u00a0 Every person who doesn\u2019t abide by the restrictions endangers everybody else as they increase the risk not only of infecting others but of new dangerous variants.\u00a0 It\u2019s sort of like saying that drunk driving is a personal choice.\u00a0 Yes, most drunk drivers manage to make it home OK most of the time.\u00a0 But every time anyone drives drunk, they increase the risk not only to themselves but to everyone around them.\u00a0 It\u2019s a game of odds and society rightfully insists that we not endanger others by driving under the influence, no matter how inconvenient we find it to call a taxi or friend to come get us.

I also want to address one more issue that\u2019s been getting some press.\u00a0 I\u2019ve seen a number of articles lately warning that people who have been vaccinated can still spread the virus.\u00a0 We\u2019ve seen multiple reports of people testing positive for COVID after having been vaccinated, e.g.\u00a0 Here\u2019s why that happens.

First, no vaccines keep you from being infected with a virus.\u00a0 Vaccines never prevent viruses from infecting you, they just take care of the infections when they\u2019re small enough to be harmless.\u00a0 Vaccines teach your immune system how to combat particular viruses.\u00a0 But your immune system only kicks in once it detects the virus and it takes a bit for it to ramp up the specific defenses.\u00a0 Typically, the immune system doesn\u2019t reach full force until the virus has already invaded cells and started multiplying.\u00a0 At that point, the immune system can clear the virus and keep it from doing its usual harm.\u00a0 Vaccines prevent illness, not infection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now you may remember back to the spring when there was confusion about whether asymptomatic people could spread COVID.  With most viruses, people aren\u2019t infectious until they\u2019re ill – until they have symptoms.  So if a vaccine keeps you from being ill, it keeps you from being infectious.  But COVID is different.  COVID generates high viral loads very quickly, so you can transmit the virus to others before you become ill.  The vaccines are very good at preventing people from becoming ill with COVID, but the virus ramps up quickly enough that it reaches transmission levels before our immune systems can clear it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, if you get vaccinated and breathe in some COVID virus, that virus very quickly starts reproducing in your upper respiratory tract and rapidly reaches detectable levels before your immune system is fully engaged.\u00a0 Since all that viral production is happening in your nose and throat, it\u2019s very easy for you to shed virus as you breathe and talk even as your immune system is quietly and efficiently clearing the virus and keeping you from becoming ill.\u00a0 Of course the virus you shed may go on to infect someone who doesn\u2019t have your resistance causing them to become gravely ill.\u00a0 This is why it\u2019s important to continue with masks and social distancing even after getting vaccinated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I encourage everyone to get vaccinated as soon as you possibly can.  I certainly will.  But once you\u2019ve been vaccinated, it\u2019s still your job to help protect others who haven\u2019t been vaccinated.  We owe each other this duty in the same way we owe all sorts of other duties, like not driving drunk.

So be safe and be well.  We\u2019ve got some more months to go before we can get past this pandemic.  However, the safer we each are, the fewer months that will be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of the end of January national daily cases stand at about 150,000 down 40% from their peak of 250,000 early in the month.  Still that\u2019s more than twice the summer peak of about 70,000  The decline has been rapid, but seems to be moderating somewhat over the last week.  Daily deaths, on the other […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/366"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=366"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":367,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/366\/revisions\/367"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}