{"id":360,"date":"2021-01-07T10:37:32","date_gmt":"2021-01-07T18:37:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/?p=360"},"modified":"2021-01-07T10:37:32","modified_gmt":"2021-01-07T18:37:32","slug":"new-case-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/07\/new-case-record\/","title":{"rendered":"New case record"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The 7-day case average in the US has reached a new high, 222,653.&nbsp; The 7-day death average is at its second highest point, 2,686.&nbsp; Both of these numbers are likely to rise over the next few days as the artificially low numbers recorded over the New Year holiday are replaced in the averages.&nbsp; Here is the graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/rIQ8R4LaI0i5ff7aFOM8svkzOd5qJVKuaKrrwknQYJnbZ7rr61WYZ64enoGvqBqJ6i9u7q5zaFiS5cdfBZOyIZI96sSN6x2ayMRdjN3hiuQbukOVwwR4V6brvQIEUQlBEtFaL_n0\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to note that the increase in case numbers occurs while testing rates are the lowest they have been since before Thanksgiving.&nbsp; The rate of positive results has been close to 17%.&nbsp; Thus, it is likely that cases are currently underreported as a lower percentage of asymptomatic cases are detected under these conditions.&nbsp; Hospitalizations continue to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We aren\u2019t yet fully caught up from the holiday dip in numbers, that will take a few more days.&nbsp; My guess is that we will see a significant reporting of deaths that actually occurred during the dip.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two very large unknowns in the medium term.&nbsp; First we don\u2019t know the effects of holiday gatherings yet.&nbsp; There\u2019s a delay between exposure and symptoms that can be as long as two weeks.&nbsp; It will be another week before we can adequately assess how the holidays have impacted case numbers.&nbsp; Second, we don\u2019t yet have a good handle on how the UK variant is spreading in the US.&nbsp; We have found enough cases that it\u2019s likely the variant has a strong foothold, but we don\u2019t know whether or to what extent the variant has been a contributor to the surge thus far.&nbsp; The political chaos in the country may further reduce our vision as it will have an impact on testing rates and on how people respond to information about the virus.&nbsp; Political conflict may also hamper the ability to implement mitigation measures.&nbsp; Pandemics and insurrections are both nasty things, we have the misfortune of living through them concurrently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I wish I had better news, but January still looks to be a very ugly month for the pandemic.&nbsp; Stay safe, stay sane, and hold on to that which is dear in your life.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 7-day case average in the US has reached a new high, 222,653.&nbsp; The 7-day death average is at its second highest point, 2,686.&nbsp; Both of these numbers are likely to rise over the next few days as the artificially low numbers recorded over the New Year holiday are replaced in the averages.&nbsp; Here is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/360"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=360"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/360\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":361,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/360\/revisions\/361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}