{"id":257,"date":"2020-07-08T11:40:35","date_gmt":"2020-07-08T18:40:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/?p=257"},"modified":"2020-07-08T11:40:35","modified_gmt":"2020-07-08T18:40:35","slug":"passing-3-million","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/08\/passing-3-million\/","title":{"rendered":"Passing 3 Million"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We\u2019ve reached 3 million cumulative cases on all the trackers now.\u00a0 As expected, the numbers were a little noisy over the holiday weekend with different trackers showing somewhat different numbers.\u00a0 The Johns Hopkins tracker registered more than 60,000 cases yesterday, a record number.\u00a0 1point2acres and worldometer showed lower numbers yesterday but higher numbers the previous two days.\u00a0 Whichever tracker you use, it\u2019s clear that cases continue to rise nationally and that almost all states are seeing increases in daily case numbers. There is more noise in the daily deaths numbers, so it\u2019s harder to know exactly what is happening with them at the national level.\u00a0 My best guess is that numbers have leveled off and may have just started to rise.\u00a0 We\u2019ll need to wait a few more days to see whether that interpretation is borne out in the coming numbers. Here is the national graph as of last night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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At the state level, deaths are increasing in many states, especially those that have seen some of the worst recent increases.  Here, for example, is a combined graph for Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas.  In it, we can see a lag of a bit more than three weeks between when cases started to rise and when deaths started to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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At the same time, there are states that have seen rising case numbers for at least three weeks yet don\u2019t see increasing deaths.\u00a0 California is perhaps the clearest example of this type.\u00a0 Its case numbers have been rising since April while it\u2019s death numbers have been declining over the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I don\u2019t know what accounts for the difference in states such as California.  The expectation is that death rates should generally follow case rates with about a 3 week lag, and that death rates should increase even more once hospital systems become stressed or overwhelmed.  Many states started growing within the last three weeks, so we\u2019ll have to wait and see what happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The national numbers are currently growing at about 1.85% per day based on a 7 day average.  If we continue to grow at this rate, we should reach 4 million cases by July 24th.  Here is a projection based on a 1.9% growth rate for cases.  Our growth rate is still increasing, so I\u2019ve bumped it up slightly in anticipation that the increase will continue at least in the short term.  These numbers are for the Johns Hopkins tracker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day<\/td>Cases<\/td>Deaths<\/td><\/tr>
7\/7<\/td>2,995,946<\/td>131,477<\/td><\/tr>
7\/8<\/td>3,052,869<\/td>132,583<\/td><\/tr>
7\/9<\/td>3,110,873<\/td>133,691<\/td><\/tr>
7\/10<\/td>3,169,980<\/td>134,799<\/td><\/tr>
7\/11<\/td>3,230,210<\/td>135,907<\/td><\/tr>
7\/12<\/td>3,291,584<\/td>137,015<\/td><\/tr>
7\/13<\/td>3,354,124<\/td>138,123<\/td><\/tr>
7\/14<\/td>3,417,852<\/td>139,230<\/td><\/tr>
7\/15<\/td>3,482,791<\/td>140,338<\/td><\/tr>
7\/16<\/td>3,548,964<\/td>141,446<\/td><\/tr>
7\/17<\/td>3,616,395<\/td>142,554<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Stay safe and help others do the same.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve reached 3 million cumulative cases on all the trackers now.\u00a0 As expected, the numbers were a little noisy over the holiday weekend with different trackers showing somewhat different numbers.\u00a0 The Johns Hopkins tracker registered more than 60,000 cases yesterday, a record number.\u00a0 1point2acres and worldometer showed lower numbers yesterday but higher numbers the previous […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[10,8,7,9],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=257"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":258,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257\/revisions\/258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}