{"id":226,"date":"2020-06-03T17:32:04","date_gmt":"2020-06-04T00:32:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/?p=226"},"modified":"2020-06-03T17:32:04","modified_gmt":"2020-06-04T00:32:04","slug":"the-beginning-of-a-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/03\/the-beginning-of-a-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"The Beginning of a Rise?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not entirely clear yet, but I think we\u2019re beginning to see the national case numbers rise.\u00a0 Here\u2019s a graph to help me explain why.\u00a0 I\u2019ve added lines indicating the change in the weekly peaks and valleys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
Graph of New Cases showing changes i peaks and valleys: Jim Hardy<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, the peaks have gotten lower each week since late April.\u00a0 The valleys have followed a similar pattern, though with less decrease overall.\u00a0 Starting in early May, we see a change in the pattern.\u00a0 The peaks begin to decrease more slowly and the valleys stay at basically the same level.\u00a0 In the last cycle we see valley actually rise while the peak has the smallest decrease in the series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, note where we are in the cycle.\u00a0 Throughout the graph, valleys have occurred mostly on Mondays, a couple of times on Sunday, and once on Wednesday after a long holiday weekend.\u00a0 We\u2019re at Wednesday after a valley on Sunday.\u00a0 If the pattern continues largely as it has, we should see rising numbers for the next few days.\u00a0 From that point, it will be very difficult to continue the weekly cycle without the peaks also rising.\u00a0 When peaks and valleys are both rising, the numbers as a whole are rising.\u00a0 In fact, the wider valley we see last week exactly corresponds to low testing numbers just after Memorial Day.\u00a0 Had testing occurred at the usual rate on those days, we would likely have seen the rise begin earlier.\u00a0 Here\u2019s a chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
Testing rates from https:\/\/coronavirus.1point3acres.com\/en\/test<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, provisionally, I think the numbers are beginning to rise.  It remains to be seen how the protests will affect testing rates.  If testing rates are suppressed, then case numbers may not rise as expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

States<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s see how the states are doing individually.  On Monday I grouped the states based on whether their cases were rising, falling or steady\/unclear.  Today I\u2019m only going to briefly comment on those that seem to have changed categories since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Massachusetts<\/strong> – from Falling to Unclear.\u00a0 This is due to a large spike (5x normal)\u00a0 in reported cases on June 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York<\/strong> – from Falling to Steady.\u00a0 It\u2019s probably still falling a little, but the rate has slowed enough that I count it as steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Dakota<\/strong> – from Falling to Unclear.\u00a0 While it has dropped from its high point, the last week seems more steady than falling.\u00a0 There are some anomalies in the data that make me list it as unclear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oklahoma <\/strong>– from Falling to Unclear.\u00a0 There\u2019s a lot of noise in the data making it hard to see a clear trend now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas <\/strong>– from Unclear to Rising.\u00a0 The running average has been rising steadily.\u00a0 The three highest days overall for Texas have been in the last week.\u00a0 Last night\u2019s numbers were more than twice the previous Tuesday\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virginia <\/strong>– from Rising to Unclear.\u00a0 After a spike on the 25th and 26th, the number have fallen back to roughly the previous range.\u00a0 We\u2019ll have to see what happens next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wisconsin <\/strong>– from Rising to Unclear.\u00a0 There are large swings in the data.\u00a0 It may have leveled off overall, but it\u2019s too soon to tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of the other states are in the same category as before.  If anyone wants to see a graph for a particular state, let me know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what the next 10 days may look like.  I think the protests throw some added uncertainty into this largely because they may impact testing rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day<\/td>Cases<\/td>Deaths<\/td><\/tr>
6\/2<\/td>1,827,466<\/td>106,026<\/td><\/tr>
6\/3<\/td>1,851,516<\/td>107,001<\/td><\/tr>
6\/4<\/td>1,874,424<\/td>108,008<\/td><\/tr>
6\/5<\/td>1,897,333<\/td>109,016<\/td><\/tr>
6\/6<\/td>1,920,242<\/td>110,023<\/td><\/tr>
6\/7<\/td>1,943,151<\/td>111,030<\/td><\/tr>
6\/8<\/td>1,966,060<\/td>112,038<\/td><\/tr>
6\/9<\/td>1,988,969<\/td>113,045<\/td><\/tr>
6\/10<\/td>2,011,878<\/td>114,052<\/td><\/tr>
6\/11<\/td>2,034,787<\/td>115,060<\/td><\/tr>
6\/12<\/td>2,057,696<\/td>116,067<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Stay safe, and don\u2019t be racist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysis It\u2019s not entirely clear yet, but I think we\u2019re beginning to see the national case numbers rise.\u00a0 Here\u2019s a graph to help me explain why.\u00a0 I\u2019ve added lines indicating the change in the weekly peaks and valleys. As you can see, the peaks have gotten lower each week since late April.\u00a0 The valleys have […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[10,8,7,9],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=226"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":228,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226\/revisions\/228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}