{"id":206,"date":"2020-05-15T13:01:27","date_gmt":"2020-05-15T20:01:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/?p=206"},"modified":"2020-05-15T13:01:27","modified_gmt":"2020-05-15T20:01:27","slug":"looking-for-effects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/15\/looking-for-effects\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking for Effects"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As far as the numbers go, we\u2019ve been waiting to see whether Sundays’ very low numbers represent a real improvement or just noise, and we\u2019ve been waiting for the first signs of reopening to appear.  We have some preliminary answers on both counts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

**Sunday\u2019s Numbers**<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Sunday, May 10, both the new case and new death numbers were remarkably low. While national numbers have been going down over the last month, Sunday\u2019s decrease was noticeably larger than expected.  Since Sunday, the numbers have risen back into the expected range.  They\u2019re still dropping overall, but at about the same rate they have been.  We\u2019ll need to wait for the weekly cycle to finish to be sure, but for now it looks like just some noise in the usual pattern we\u2019ve been seeing.  Here\u2019s a graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

**Signs of Reopening**<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The graph above doesn\u2019t show any substantial signs of increases due to reopening, but we really wouldn\u2019t expect it to.  With the delay between infection and symptoms, only a few states have been reopening long enough to potentially show an effect.  Those increases would be drowned out in a national level graph.  Let\u2019s have a quick look at the state graphs for Georgia, Florida, and Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You\u2019ll notice that the trendline for this graph is curved.a bit.  I\u2019ve used a different type of formula for it in order to give some idea of how it is changing over time.  (2nd order polynomial if anyone cares.)  You can see the trendline get flatter over time.  This means that while cases are still decreasing, they are not decreasing as much as they were.  So this is some grounds for thinking that Georgia is seeing some negative impact from reopening.  We should have a clear view in another week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florida started reopening on May 4th, though it didn\u2019t seem to be fully closed even before then.  Here\u2019s its graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, the trend line shows going from a decrease in cases to increasing.  To be fair, we should let these numbers go another week before drawing conclusions, the data has a fair bit of noise in it.  However, at this point there is at least some reason to think that reopening is having an impact on the number of new cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, here\u2019s Texas.  Texas started reopening on May 1st, but the move was announced several days earlier and not everyone waited.  Unlike Georgia and Florida, Texas had increasing growth rates when it started reopening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Again, we really should wait another week to be sure, but this graph looks very suggestive.  There\u2019s little doubt that Texas\u2019 growth rate is increasing, but there is some question about the extent to which that is due to reopening rather than people just generally not following guidelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just for the sake of comparison, here is the graph for Illinois, a hard hit state that extended its stay at home order with only minor relaxations and won\u2019t begin significantly reopening for another couple of weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, they have a very different outcome despite having been harder hit.  Their curve is decreasing in slope rather than increasing.

So, at least provisionally it seems that reopening is beginning to raise growth rates while remaining closed is continuing to decrease rates.  Lest I be thought to be cherry-picking the data, if anyone wants to see the graph for a specific state, let me know in the comments and I\u2019ll try to provide it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

**Things to watch for**<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s some good news on the vaccine front, with a study that strongly suggests that it will be possible to develop an effective vaccine for the virus.  Rather than reinventing the wheel, let me point you to Derek Lowe\u2019s excellent discussion of it.  https:\/\/blogs.sciencemag.org\/pipeline\/archives\/2020\/05\/15\/good-news-on-the-human-immune-response-to-the-coronavirus<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wisconsin\u2019s Supreme Court recently struck down the Governor\u2019s stay at home orders.  You may recall that this is the same court that insisted that in person elections take place despite having to close many polling places due to the pandemic.  As a result, Wisconsin has gone rather suddenly from having strong stay at home orders to not having any at all.  It will be instructive to watch what the effect of that is.  Here\u2019s their graph as of last night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Projection<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what the numbers may look like for the next 10 days.  We\u2019re still on track to be over 100,000 deaths by the end of the month and around 1.75 million cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day<\/td>Cases<\/td>Deaths<\/td><\/tr>
5\/14<\/td>1,417,774<\/td>85,898<\/td><\/tr>
5\/15<\/td>1,443,505<\/td>87,515<\/td><\/tr>
5\/16<\/td>1,469,249<\/td>89,133<\/td><\/tr>
5\/17<\/td>1,494,993<\/td>90,750<\/td><\/tr>
5\/18<\/td>1,520,736<\/td>92,368<\/td><\/tr>
5\/19<\/td>1,546,480<\/td>93,985<\/td><\/tr>
5\/20<\/td>1,572,224<\/td>95,603<\/td><\/tr>
5\/21<\/td>1,597,968<\/td>97,220<\/td><\/tr>
5\/22<\/td>1,623,712<\/td>98,838<\/td><\/tr>
5\/23<\/td>1,649,455<\/td>100,455<\/td><\/tr>
5\/24<\/td>1,675,199<\/td>102,073<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.  Whatever state you\u2019re in, the more you can reduce your own risk, the more you protect your family and those you come into contact with.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As far as the numbers go, we\u2019ve been waiting to see whether Sundays’ very low numbers represent a real improvement or just noise, and we\u2019ve been waiting for the first signs of reopening to appear.  We have some preliminary answers on both counts. **Sunday\u2019s Numbers** On Sunday, May 10, both the new case and new […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[10,8,7,9],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=206"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":207,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/206\/revisions\/207"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}