Growth rates overall continue to decline.\u00a0 To be clear, cases and deaths continue to grow exponentially, but the rate of that growth is not as fast as it was.\u00a0 Over the last 5 days, cases have grown at an average of about 10% per day while deaths have grown at an average of about 17%.\u00a0 Just two days ago the 5 day average were 12% and 21%. The decline in case growth rate has been pretty consistent, falling a bit for 6 of the last 7 days.\u00a0 The change in death growth rate has been bumpier with about equal numbers of increases and decreases. Still, there does seem to have been some actual decline overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because the case rates have been falling pretty consistently, I\u2019m going to run today\u2019s case projection at 9%, a bit less than the average.\u00a0 I\u2019ll run the death projection at the 5 day average. Here are the numbers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/8\t439,347<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/9\t478,889<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/10\t521,989<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/11\t568,968<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/12\t620,175<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/13\t675,990<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/14\t736,830<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/15\t803,144<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/16\t875,427<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/17\t954,216
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Deaths:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/8\t15,141<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/9\t17,700<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/10\t20,693<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/11\t24,191<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/12\t28,281<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/13\t33,062<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/14\t38,651<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/15\t45,186<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/16\t52,825<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/17\t61,755
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There has been an increasing amount of reporting about underreporting of both cases and deaths.\u00a0 This can have an impact on reported numbers going forward in a number of ways. We could see reported numbers rise faster than expected as testing becomes more prevalent and reporting systems become more robust.\u00a0 Alternatively, we could see reported numbers fall faster than expected as current systems and resources become increasingly overwhelmed. Of course because of the political importance of the numbers, there is always the possibility of pressure being applied to report higher or lower numbers.\u00a0 To my mind, the takeaway here is that the numbers and patterns have a high level of uncertainty.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another thing to keep in mind is that areas which are substantially underreporting cases may see quite rapid rises once the cases hit a certain threshold level where the effects can no longer be ignored.\u00a0 There is some reason to expect this in communities with a large African American population as African Americans seem to have higher rates of infection and mortality and such communities tend to receive fewer resources related to testing and reporting.\u00a0 We do not yet know the degree to which the increased susceptibility is biological or based in socio-cultural factors such as lower access to medical resources, though the higher incidence of complicating conditions likely plays a substantial role. A number of states that are in the second tier of coronavirus cases fall into this category.\u00a0 (https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/nation\/2020\/04\/07\/who-dying-coronavirus-more-black-people-die-major-cities\/2961323001\/<\/a>) <\/p>\n\n\n\n One potential danger going forward is that we will be too quick to let down our guard.\u00a0 Most experts seem to think a vaccine is at least a year off, probably more. Until that point, or some other permanent solution, we will have to remain vigilant.\u00a0 There will be a fine balance to be struck between allowing enough activity to stimulate the economy while not enough to allow the virus to spread rampantly. Our governmental institutions are not particularly good at this sort of fine control.\u00a0 My advice is to prepare for some degree of social distancing for the next year. Perhaps there will be an unexpected breakthrough and that preparation won\u2019t be needed. However, as with so many things, it is far better to be unnecessarily prepared than unnecessarily unprepared.\u00a0 Keeping a long term perspective can also help to even out the emotional roller coaster of the news cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, overall, conditions do seem to be improving, but there is a lot of uncertainty left in the numbers and in the road forward.\u00a0 Try to appreciate the upsides of isolation rather than just its negatives. My favorite one-line philosophy of life comes from Jame Taylor, \u201cThe secret o\u2019 life is enjoying the passage of time.\u201d\u00a0 If we can learn to find beauty and peace in our conditions, then our condition will have improved even if it hasn\u2019t changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Thanks for reading. Growth rates overall continue to decline.\u00a0 To be clear, cases and deaths continue to grow exponentially, but the rate of that growth is not as fast as it was.\u00a0 Over the last 5 days, cases have grown at an average of about 10% per day while deaths have grown at an average of about 17%.\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[10,8,7,9],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":152,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150\/revisions\/152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"