April is the cruelest month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We crossed the 250,000 reported cases benchmark last night.\u00a0 New York state has over 100,000 cases with more than half of those within New York City.\u00a0 Nearly all states are experiencing exponential growth in reported cases with several near or above the 10,000 reported case thresholds.\u00a0 As these states develop caseloads large enough to meaningfully impact the national numbers, we may see growth patterns in reported case change.\u00a0 Right now, it\u2019s all about New York, with a noticeable contribution fromNew Jersey, and just a few hints of other states. The astronomical rise in unemployment will likely also have an impact, but we don\u2019t know how.\u00a0 On the one hand, people may stay home more as they don\u2019t need to commute. On the other, unemployed people may go out more as they search for resources to help get their family through. We\u2019ve had more people come to our property in the last few days than we usually do in several months as we try to support local tradespeople by finishing delayed projects.\u00a0 (Our property allows these projects to be done with minimal contact and we follow precautions both before they arrive and after they leave.) It\u2019s very hard to predict how people will react. At least it\u2019s hard for me to predict, I\u2019m sure there are experts in relevant fields who would have informed prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Over the last week, the average daily increase in reported cases has been about 16%.\u00a0 During the same period, reported deaths increased by an average of about 24% per day. I\u2019ll use these growth rates and last night\u2019s numbers from the tracker for today\u2019s projection.\u00a0 Please remember that these are simply projections of the last week\u2019s growth rates. There are many important variables that aren\u2019t considered here. My goal is simply to give us an idea of where we\u2019re headed so long as things don\u2019t change.\u00a0 Speaking only for myself, I react better when I have at least some idea of what may lie ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reported Cases<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/3 285,362<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/4 331,020<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/5 383,984<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/6 445,421<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/7 516,688<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/8 599,358<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/9 695,256<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/10 806,497<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/11 935,536<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/12 1,085,222<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reported Deaths<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/3 7,538<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/4 9,347<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/5 11,590<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/6 14,372<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/7 17,821<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/8 22,098<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/9 27,402<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/10 33,979<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/11 42,133<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\/12\u00a0 52,246<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The lack of a consistent, coherent federal system for testing and for reporting and cases and deaths continues to hamper our knowledge of how the virus is spreading, so remember that things may change.\u00a0 I\u2019ve been trying to avoid politics in these posts, but it\u2019s increasingly clear that we\u2019re seeing the effects of a fractured and delayed federal response. Even handled well, this would be a difficult situation.\u00a0 The US is not handling it well at all. It shows in the numbers and will leave a mark on our society much deeper than that left by 9\/11.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
April is the cruelest month. We crossed the 250,000 reported cases benchmark last night.\u00a0 New York state has over 100,000 cases with more than half of those within New York City.\u00a0 Nearly all states are experiencing exponential growth in reported cases with several near or above the 10,000 reported case thresholds.\u00a0 As these states develop […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[10,8,7,9],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":143,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142\/revisions\/143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}