{"id":140,"date":"2020-04-01T11:49:53","date_gmt":"2020-04-01T18:49:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/34.83.35.182\/?p=140"},"modified":"2020-04-01T11:49:53","modified_gmt":"2020-04-01T18:49:53","slug":"case-projection-4-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/01\/case-projection-4-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Case Projection 4\/1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We\u2019ve now crossed 200,000 cumulative reported cases.\u00a0 Over the last 7 days, we have averaged a 19% increase in reported cases per day.\u00a0 It\u2019s important to remember that these numbers are only reported cases.  Problems with testing availability and process are commonplace and make these numbers unreliable as an indication of the true spread of the virus.\u00a0 For example, California has over 50,000 tests that are backlogged at Quest Diagnostics.  (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/health\/archive\/2020\/03\/next-covid-19-testing-crisis\/609193\/\">https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/health\/archive\/2020\/03\/next-covid-19-testing-crisis\/609193\/<\/a> ).\u00a0 CA currently has a positive test rate close to 30%.\u00a0 At that rate, CA may have at least 15,000 more cases than reported.\u00a0 We\u2019re really only seeing the tip of the iceberg in these numbers.  Still, they\u2019re the only numbers we have, so they\u2019re the numbers we can use.\u00a0 Just be sure to remember the limitations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Starting at 200,000 and projecting out 10 days, here\u2019s what the numbers would look like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/1&nbsp; &nbsp; 200,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/2&nbsp; &nbsp; 238,000<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/3&nbsp; &nbsp; 283,220<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/4&nbsp; &nbsp; 337,032<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/5&nbsp; &nbsp; 401,068<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/6&nbsp; &nbsp; 477,271<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/7&nbsp; &nbsp; 567,952<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/8&nbsp; &nbsp; 675,863<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/9&nbsp; &nbsp; 804,277<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/10&nbsp; 957,090<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4\/11&nbsp; 1,138,937<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As our systems become increasingly stressed this month, I expect these numbers to become increasingly less reliable.\u00a0 Each test requires the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) and many places are prioritizing the use of PPE in treatment rather than testing.\u00a0 As noted above, some testing labs are simply not able to keep up with the testing rate.  So, if you want to keep a sense of the scale of the crisis, it\u2019s best to look not only at reported cases, but also at testing and death rates.\u00a0 I\u2019ll try to come up with something helpful on how to do that without getting overwhelmed.  That may be a day or three out though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stay safe, stay healthy, and stay at home.<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019ve now crossed 200,000 cumulative reported cases.\u00a0 Over the last 7 days, we have averaged a 19% increase in reported cases per day.\u00a0 It\u2019s important to remember that these numbers are only reported cases. Problems with testing availability and process are commonplace and make these numbers unreliable as an indication of the true spread of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[10,8,7],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=140"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":141,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140\/revisions\/141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/hardythoughts.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}